Heavy Lake-Effect Snow Alert: Parts of CNY Could Get More Than 4 Feet

An unwelcome change in the forecast means snow-covered roads and potentially hazardous driving conditions during New York's busiest time of year.

Let's start with the good news first: Central New York will have a white Thanksgiving.

The bad news? Let's get into it.

After the National Weather Service gave us welcome news yesterday that the Thanksgiving Nor'easter and subsequent lake-effect snow on Black Friday would miss us... Mother Nature changed her mind.

Oneida and Madison County is currently under a Hazardous Weather Outlook while Herkimer County is under a Winter Storm Watch until 1am Friday.

Snow is expected to move into the region starting Wednesday night.

Benn Lott, a meteorologist from NWS Binghamton, spoke with WIBX Wednesday morning about the change in the forecast.

"We do have a system moving in late tonight [...] and that's going to bring some snow to the region," he noted, adding the best potential for lake-effect snow will start Sunday through Monday.

Oneida and Madison County Forecast

The NWS currently says around half an inch of snow will fall the night before Thanksgiving in the Utica area, but snow will continue throughout Turkey Day.

Current snowfall totals have 2 inches of snow falling in the Utica area on Thursday, with another half inch hitting the ground overnight.

Things start getting dicey after the Thanksgiving storm moves out of the area and ushers in a string of lake-effect snow events.

Oneida and Madison Counties should have a rather uneventful Friday, as the area only has a 50% chance of snow in the forecast on Friday.

Herkimer, Lewis, Otsego and Jefferson County Forecast

Thanksgiving will be more eventful for these areas, which are under Winter Storm Watches.

Herkimer County, especially the southern parts, could see 7 or more inches of snow by early Friday morning. Snow is expected to start falling Wednesday night and continue on through Black Friday.

On the other hand, the Port Leyden-Lowville area won't see as much snow on Thanksgiving. The NWS predicts the region will see about 2 inches of snow between now and Thursday evening.

Some models indicate the hilltop areas and the higher elevations of Lewis County could see up to 8 inches of snow by Friday morning.

Friday is when the weather turns for Lewis, Oswego, and Jefferson County.

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect starting 1pm Friday and will last through 7AM Monday morning, December 2. The service anticipates heavy snow and winds gusting as high as 30 miles per hour.

The NWS says because it is a lake effect system, snowfall totals remain unclear.

The potential exists for a significant long duration lake effect snow event. There is uncertainty in exact band placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are possible. Travel could be very difficult to impossible with very poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. Some major roadways could temporarily close. The hazardous conditions could impact the post-Thanksgiving travel period, especially along Interstate 81.

The NWS urges, "Narrow bands of heavy snow could bring rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Localized travel problems will be possible."

While it is too soon to tell just how many inches we'll see starting Friday, the potential is there that a snowblower or snow plow may be needed.

Lake Effect Outlook through Early Next Week

Another issue is the oncoming blast of arctic air that'll bring the chilliest weather of the season starting tomorrow, November 28.

Cold weather will also flow into Central New York starting Thursday night, with the region experiencing temperatures below freezing.

Read More: New York Home to 1 of the World's "Snowiest" Cities

Max Velocity, who runs the Severe Weather Channel, confirmed that "snow jackets should be ready to go" before the oncoming front.

"This could be a multi-day arctic blast," he warned, noting the potential it has to fuel even more lake-effect snowfall.

He also noted a low pressure system may help fuel northwesterly winds across the Great Lakes, of which he warns could create "significant" lake effect snow starting Friday.

Some New York areas - mainly the western part of the state - could see "feet" of snow, he said.

The lake effect snow event will be the worst from Friday until about 2pm Tuesday of next week.

While most of the action appears to be centered over WNY and the Buffalo area, Central New York is expected to be hit by some of these bands of snow.

Between Wednesday and Tuesday of next week, Velocity anticipates snowfall totals for CNY to range from about 6 to 13 inches.

However, the Waterville and Lowville areas could see even greater amounts, with the models giving a "conservative" guess that some regions could get 56 inches of snow, or about 4 and a half feet.

Velocity said some areas could see up to 70 inches of snow by Tuesday, December 3.

And those numbers might even be conservative, by the way, because this is a deterministic model. It does not necessarily account for a high resolution here. So, these numbers I would say are still on the low side of things - but again, a minor change to the forecast could also drop these numbers quite a bit.

Velocity explained that lake effect snow is dependent on wind direction, which is very unpredictable. Even the slightest change of direction could mean an entirely different forecast.

"It's still a little uncertain, but we do think the worst of the snow will be in the Northwest Pennsylvania, just south of Buffalo, and then also back over north of Syracuse," said Velocity, noting some spots could get "feet of snow."

That being said, with models now showing the potential for severe weather and multiple feet of snow, residents are urged to monitor the weather so they are best prepared for what's to come.

Here's hoping Mother Nature changes her mind and cuts us a break this Thanksgiving.

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